July 2, 2018 – Weekly Market Analysis

Fresh 3 monthly charts are here :

Nifty Small-Cap Index with 10EMA Applied. More Pain Left? Well, we are trading at support for now.

niftsmall

Nifty Mid-Cap Index with 10EMA Applied, More Pain Left? Well, Maybe Yes.

niftymids

Here is Just-Dial 3 monthly chart, look at the big volume, once it starts gaining momentum, 700+ wouldn’t take long.

just

Calling bottom on anything mid-cap would be naive, a given market in downtrend or bear territory keeps giving the illusion of strength which happens due to short-covering or investors rushing into buying thinking prices have stabilized but it’s a long churning process which takes months to resolve basically taking the trader to bankruptcy. I am not trying to scare but lessons are to be learned from PNB or Balrampur Chini recently. I have not been able to find any good long setups here, don’t track small-cap stocks so can’t comment on them except looking at it’s index.

Among Private Bank, 2 stocks that peak my interest are Axis Bank and Yes Bank, both on long side. Take a look at IndusInd bank, reversing from 1995 – turning out to be a tough nut to crack that level.

Here is Yes Bank Chart:

fibyes

Among IT Stocks, I have got no comments, did say “Infosys should go down badly” in one of my tweets although it has rallied 3% since then, I still don’t like the chart structure. God Bless those who are trading them.

Among Pharma Stocks, things have changed here recently, no doubt Pharma took over the street in the month of June. I like 2 stocks here for a long side-play – Lupin and Cipla. I did tweet about AuroPharma outperforming but looking at price action recently have changed my view. I think Pharma might not do much this July and stay in a rangebound mode.

To Explain this, here is Pharma monthly chart, I expect a small red candle next looking at the formation of pattern.

pharmamonth

Among Motor Stocks, TataMotors would be on radar, bulls have exited this space it seems and I am bullish. was waiting for it to give the bear trap move and it did. Last June, kept getting messages from traders holding call options and the inquiry have stopped, I use all these psychological metrics in Trading. Read “Reminiscence of a stock operator”

motatmo

HeroMoto is one stock I would advice to stay away from, it’s a bad-looking chart, you can draw all the trend-lines you want but it is weak. I have no edge in Eicher Motors.

Among Cement Stocks, it’s playing around within a range, I have got nothing to share here, investors can accumulate for long term but as a trader, I have got no edge here.

Among Individual stocks, two I like in particular given the risk-reward is Coal India and ITC. Please refer to their weekly charts to gain more insights. ITC can lift FMCG index even higher. TataSteel is worth looking into above 580.

Here is the deal with pharma. although I don’t see much happening, betting on STAR (I do hold call options for the month of July) there is always one stock surprising as traders would be busy shorting everything in this sector.

I apologize couldn’t write about options, it’s a broad topic, would consume time with detailed analysis, some other day, Promise!

What Else? This Blog is Over. If you feel I am lazy and didn’t bother to write much, will leave you with this

“You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run”

Keep sizing in check and see you on the other side of field next week. Peace 🙂

 

 

 

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